Why I Expect a Minimal Rise in Unemployment This Recession

I hone in on those categories below, but the big picture is important too.  Overall […]

I hone in on those categories below, but the big picture is important too.  Overall Key Points Decline in manufacturing importanceEducation and Health Services was recession proof until CovidRetail Trade jobs have has stabilized for two decadesProfessional and Business Services are hard hit …

Let’s investigate recession history of job losses and what’s likely this time.

I hone in on those categories below, but the big picture is important too.

Overall Key Points

  • Decline in manufacturing importance
  • Education and Health Services was recession proof until Covid
  • Retail Trade jobs have has stabilized for two decades
  • Professional and Business Services are hard hit every recession
  • Construction hit in every recession
  • Leisure and hospitality was the hardest hit sector in the Covid recession but is normally not hit that hard in most recessions

Job Levels By Category L&H, E&H, PABS

Job Levels By Category long term detail part 1 2022-06

  • Professional and Business Services jobs are at high risk and they have recovered to the previous trend.
  • Leisure and Hospitality, and Education and Health Services are screaming for workers. That might not easily change except in the most brutal of recessions.

Job Levels By Category Construction, Retail Trade, Manufacturing

Job Levels By Category long term detail part 2 2022-06

Construction, Retail Trade, Manufacturing Key Points 

  • Construction jobs rate to get whacked hard on a percentage basis in a housing bust. But that’s a small job segment.
  • Retail trade rates to get hit having fully recovered.
  • Manufacturing will not get hit as hard as either the 2000 recession or the 2008 recession.

Rise in Unemployment Rate 

Recession Rise in Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Levels

Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Level 2022-06B

Employment Levels in Retirement Age Groups 

Employment Levels in Retirement Age Groups

Retirement Key Points 

  • Employment and job levels still have not recovered from the Covid recession.
  • There are over 22 million people age 60 and over who are currently employed.
  • Millions of those workers will retire.

Age 60+ Employment

  • In 2022: 22.09 Million
  • In 2008: 13.46 Million
  • In 1999: 8.22 Million
  • In 1981: 7.21 Million

There are over 22 million people age 60 or over who are still working. We have never seen anything like this before, so don’t expect prior recessions to be a model for this one.

Two key groups, Leisure and Hospitality, and Education and Health Services are unlikely to be firing many.

The low so far is 1.1 percent and we may smash that.

That’s the good news. Now the bad.

Why Earnings and the Stock Market Will Get Crushed

Here’s the case for an earnings smash accompanied by a continuation of the stock market crash: Artificial Wealth vs GDP: Why Earnings and the Stock Market Will Get Crushed

Case for an Earnings Crash

  1. Recession
  2. De-globalization costs
  3. Retirement of 22 million boomers will lower productivity and slow spending
  4. De-carbonization is very expensive, do we even have the natural resources?
  5. End of a 40-year bull market in interests rates
  6. Potential for protracted war in Ukraine
  7. Central bank concern over reigniting inflation
  8. Renewed union push
  9. Wealth impact of stock market decline will itself slow spending
  10. Various bubbles have just begin to pop

For more details and discussion of those 10 points, please click on the above link.

 


The original article can be found at: Mish Talk - Global Economics